SupplyIQCascade Ridge Medical Center
Today

Endotracheal Tube, Cuffed, 8.0 mm

RespiratoryVital, 99% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-367340

Stock position

On hand
78 each12 days of supply
On order
0 eachnothing open
Forecast rate
6.5 each/daynext 30 days
Demand over 9 days
60 eachlead time plus review period
Safety stock
21 eachempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point
81 eachbelow: order now
Stockout
Sat Sep 26
Recommended order
1 BXby Mon Sep 21
Inventory value
$218at $2.80 per each

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing21% weekly error, unbiased25% better than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 21% on average (46% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 28%.

0918todayreport card windowThu Mar 19Wed Oct 14
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
0safety stock 21runs out Sat Sep 26tomorrowThu Oct 1
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

VendorPart numberVendor descriptionSells byPaid per eachInvoices90-day spendPairing
Meridian Medical SupplyMMS-367340ET TUBE CUFF 8.0 MM BX/10BX of 10$2.5213$1,613stand-in