Endotracheal Tube, Cuffed, 8.0 mm
RespiratoryVital, 99% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-367340
Stock position
- On hand
- 78 each12 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 6.5 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 60 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 21 eachempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 81 eachbelow: order now
- Stockout
- Sat Sep 26
- Recommended order
- 1 BXby Mon Sep 21
- Inventory value
- $218at $2.80 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing21% weekly error, unbiased25% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 21% on average (46% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 28%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 28 | 45 | +17 | 61% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 61 | 45 | -16 | 26% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 43 | 45 | +2 | 5% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 38 | 45 | +7 | 18% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 41 | 45 | +4 | 10% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 60 | 45 | -15 | 25% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 40 | 45 | +5 | 13% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 56 | 45 | -11 | 20% |
| All 8 weeks | 367 | 362 | -5 | 1% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-367340 | ET TUBE CUFF 8.0 MM BX/10 | BX of 10 | $2.52 | 13 | $1,613 | AI 0.76 |