Ventilator Circuit, Adult, Heated Wire
RespiratoryVital, 99% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-233118
Stock position
- On hand
- 252 each18.6 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 13.5 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 124 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 49 eachempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 173 eachabove
- Stockout
- Sat Oct 3
- Recommended order
- noneby Mon Sep 28
- Inventory value
- $2,470at $9.80 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing10% weekly error, unbiased31% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 10% on average (29% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 15%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 95 | 94 | -1 | 1% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 102 | 94 | -8 | 8% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 85 | 94 | +9 | 11% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 82 | 94 | +12 | 15% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 119 | 94 | -25 | 21% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 104 | 94 | -10 | 10% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 86 | 94 | +8 | 9% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 89 | 94 | +5 | 6% |
| All 8 weeks | 762 | 754 | -8 | 1% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-233118 | VENT CIRC ADLT HTD WIRE CS/20 | CS of 20 | $8.70 | 14 | $11,658 | AI 0.88 |