Suction Catheter, 14 Fr, Closed System
RespiratoryEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-781427
Stock position
- On hand
- 1,391 each17.8 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 78.3 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 720 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 115 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 835 eachabove
- Stockout
- Fri Oct 2
- Recommended order
- noneby Tue Sep 29
- Inventory value
- $974at $0.70 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing8% weekly error, unbiased25% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 8% on average (28% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 10%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 560 | 542 | -18 | 3% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 608 | 542 | -66 | 11% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 557 | 542 | -15 | 3% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 639 | 542 | -97 | 15% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 542 | 542 | 0 | 0% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 498 | 542 | +44 | 9% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 472 | 542 | +70 | 15% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 568 | 542 | -26 | 5% |
| All 8 weeks | 4,444 | 4,339 | -105 | 2% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-781427 | SUCT CATH 14 FR CLSD SYS CS/50 | CS of 50 | $0.62 | 13 | $3,163 | AI 0.69 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW2373805 | Suction Catheter, 14 Fr, Closed System - 50/Cs | CS of 50 | $0.61 | 14 | $1,470 | AI 0.88 |