Incentive Spirometer, 4000 mL
RespiratoryNon-essential, 90% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-151655
Stock position
- On hand
- 551 each21.1 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 26.1 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 248 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 33 eachempirical 90th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 281 eachabove
- Stockout
- Tue Oct 6
- Recommended order
- noneby Sat Oct 3
- Inventory value
- $1,873at $3.40 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing15% weekly error, unbiased41% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 15% on average (28% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 25%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 151 | 179 | +28 | 19% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 142 | 179 | +37 | 26% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 192 | 179 | -13 | 7% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 203 | 179 | -24 | 12% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 196 | 179 | -17 | 9% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 162 | 179 | +17 | 10% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 142 | 179 | +37 | 26% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 215 | 179 | -36 | 17% |
| All 8 weeks | 1,403 | 1,430 | +27 | 2% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-151655 | INCENT SPIRO 4000 ML CS/12 | CS of 12 | $2.85 | 12 | $4,553 | AI 1.00 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW6524387 | Incentive Spirometer, 4000 mL - 12/Cs | CS of 12 | $3.00 | 13 | $2,379 | AI 1.00 |