Pulse Oximeter Sensor, Adult, Disposable
RespiratoryEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-521988
Stock position
- On hand
- 281 each13.8 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 20.4 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 187 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 37 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 224 eachabove
- Stockout
- Mon Sep 28
- Recommended order
- noneby Thu Sep 24
- Inventory value
- $2,501at $8.90 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing11% weekly error, under-forecast7% worse than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 11% on average (30% day by day), and it under-forecast by 8% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 10%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 145 | 141 | -4 | 3% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 162 | 141 | -21 | 13% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 162 | 141 | -21 | 13% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 154 | 141 | -13 | 8% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 160 | 141 | -19 | 12% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 141 | 141 | -0 | 0% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 124 | 141 | +17 | 14% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 176 | 141 | -35 | 20% |
| All 8 weeks | 1,224 | 1,126 | -98 | 8% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-521988 | PULSE OX SNSR ADLT DISP BX/24 | BX of 24 | $7.77 | 13 | $10,812 | AI 0.76 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW1948596 | Pulse Oximeter Sensor, Adult, Disposable - 24/Bx | BX of 24 | $7.79 | 14 | $4,860 | AI 0.88 |