Disposable Underpad, 30 x 36 in
Patient CareNon-essential, 90% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-748762
Stock position
- On hand
- 5,953 each14.6 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 409.0 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 3,735 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 798 eachempirical 90th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 4,533 eachabove
- Stockout
- Tue Sep 29
- Recommended order
- noneby Fri Sep 25
- Inventory value
- $1,667at $0.28 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing11% weekly error, under-forecast24% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 11% on average (24% day by day), and it under-forecast by 4% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 15%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 3,458 | 2,838 | -620 | 18% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 2,868 | 2,838 | -30 | 1% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 2,939 | 2,838 | -101 | 3% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 3,625 | 2,838 | -787 | 22% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 3,088 | 2,838 | -250 | 8% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 2,506 | 2,838 | +332 | 13% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 2,666 | 2,838 | +172 | 6% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 2,454 | 2,838 | +384 | 16% |
| All 8 weeks | 23,604 | 22,700 | -904 | 4% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-748762 | DISP UNDERPAD 30X36 BG/10 | BG of 10 | $0.25 | 14 | $6,356 | reviewed 0.90 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW3503482 | Disposable Underpad, 30 x 36 in - 100/Cs | CS of 100 | $0.25 | 14 | $2,835 | AI 0.88 |
| Summit Clinical Products | SC-191976 | DISP UNDRPD 30 36 100CS | CS of 100 | $0.26 | 7 | $1,087 | AI 0.70 |