Disinfectant Wipes, Canister, 160 ct
Patient CareEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-262922
Stock position
- On hand
- 945 canister21.8 days of supply
- On order
- 12 canisterfirst arrives Wed Sep 16
- Forecast rate
- 43.4 canister/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 398 canisterlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 63 canisterempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 461 canisterabove
- Stockout
- Wed Oct 7
- Recommended order
- noneby Sat Oct 3
- Inventory value
- $6,426at $6.80 per canister
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing9% weekly error, under-forecast0% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 9% on average (27% day by day), and it under-forecast by 4% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 9%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 291 | 300 | +9 | 3% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 361 | 300 | -61 | 17% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 284 | 300 | +16 | 6% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 317 | 300 | -17 | 5% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 283 | 300 | +17 | 6% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 324 | 300 | -24 | 7% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 289 | 300 | +11 | 4% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 359 | 300 | -59 | 16% |
| All 8 weeks | 2,508 | 2,403 | -105 | 4% |
Weekly totals in canister. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowcanister/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, canister: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per canister | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-262922 | DISINF WIPES CAN 160 CT CS/12 | CS of 12 | $6.26 | 13 | $18,941 | AI 0.68 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW5539920 | Disinfectant Wipes, Canister, 160 ct - 12/Cs | CS of 12 | $6.42 | 13 | $8,552 | AI 0.88 |