Hand Sanitizer, 1000 mL Dispenser Refill
Patient CareEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-693028
Stock position
- On hand
- 284 each14.4 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 19.7 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 181 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 22 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 202 eachabove
- Stockout
- Tue Sep 29
- Recommended order
- noneby Sat Sep 26
- Inventory value
- $2,613at $9.20 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing8% weekly error, unbiased49% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 8% on average (29% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 16%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 145 | 137 | -8 | 6% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 141 | 137 | -4 | 3% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 148 | 137 | -11 | 7% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 133 | 137 | +4 | 3% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 145 | 137 | -8 | 6% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 141 | 137 | -4 | 3% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 115 | 137 | +22 | 19% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 112 | 137 | +25 | 22% |
| All 8 weeks | 1,080 | 1,097 | +17 | 2% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-693028 | HAND SANIT 1000 ML DISP REFILL CS/6 | CS of 6 | $8.64 | 14 | $17,373 | AI 0.78 |