Blood Pressure Cuff, Disposable, Adult
Patient CareNon-essential, 90% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-206010
Stock position
- On hand
- 224 each10 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 22.5 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 207 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 12 eachempirical 90th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 219 eachabove
- Stockout
- Thu Sep 24
- Recommended order
- noneby Tue Sep 22
- Inventory value
- $1,075at $4.80 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing8% weekly error, over-forecast67% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 8% on average (27% day by day), and it over-forecast by 6% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 25%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 137 | 163 | +26 | 19% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 167 | 163 | -4 | 2% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 161 | 163 | +2 | 1% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 126 | 163 | +37 | 29% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 172 | 163 | -9 | 5% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 153 | 163 | +10 | 7% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 157 | 163 | +6 | 4% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 154 | 163 | +9 | 6% |
| All 8 weeks | 1,227 | 1,302 | +75 | 6% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-206010 | BLD PRESS CUFF DISP ADLT BX/20 | BX of 20 | $4.33 | 13 | $6,500 | AI 0.88 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW7282704 | Blood Pressure Cuff, Disposable, Adult - 20/Bx | BX of 20 | $4.50 | 13 | $2,879 | AI 0.88 |