Sequential Compression Sleeves, Knee Length
Patient CareEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-047670
Stock position
- On hand
- 287 pair13.9 days of supply
- On order
- 0 pairnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 20.7 pair/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 197 pairlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 43 pairempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 240 pairabove
- Stockout
- Tue Sep 29
- Recommended order
- noneby Wed Sep 23
- Inventory value
- $4,018at $14.00 per pair
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing21% weekly error, over-forecast46% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 21% on average (33% day by day), and it over-forecast by 6% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 39%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 168 | 146 | -22 | 13% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 103 | 146 | +43 | 42% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 101 | 146 | +45 | 45% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 175 | 146 | -29 | 17% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 177 | 146 | -31 | 18% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 117 | 146 | +29 | 25% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 126 | 146 | +20 | 16% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 135 | 146 | +11 | 8% |
| All 8 weeks | 1,102 | 1,171 | +69 | 6% |
Weekly totals in pair. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowpair/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, pair: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per pair | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-047670 | SEQ COMP SLV KNEE LNTH CS/10 | CS of 10 | $13.12 | 14 | $25,320 | AI 0.87 |