Emesis Bag, 1000 mL, Graduated
Patient CareNon-essential, 90% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-241926
Stock position
- On hand
- 2,658 each23.6 days of supply
- On order
- 192 eachfirst arrives Tue Sep 15
- Forecast rate
- 112.5 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 1,032 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 25 eachempirical 90th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 1,057 eachabove
- Stockout
- Sat Oct 10
- Recommended order
- noneby Wed Oct 7
- Inventory value
- $797at $0.30 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing5% weekly error, over-forecast49% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 5% on average (20% day by day), and it over-forecast by 3% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 9%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 853 | 805 | -48 | 6% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 810 | 805 | -5 | 1% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 802 | 805 | +3 | 0% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 689 | 805 | +116 | 17% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 723 | 805 | +82 | 11% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 788 | 805 | +17 | 2% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 785 | 805 | +20 | 3% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 802 | 805 | +3 | 0% |
| All 8 weeks | 6,252 | 6,440 | +188 | 3% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-241926 | EMESIS BAG 1000 ML GRAD BX/24 | BX of 24 | $0.29 | 12 | $1,912 | AI 1.00 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW7865797 | Emesis Bag, 1000 mL, Graduated - 24/Bx | BX of 24 | $0.29 | 14 | $964 | AI 1.00 |