Foley Catheter Insertion Kit, 16 Fr, Silicone
Urology & DrainageEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-954229
Stock position
- On hand
- 249 each13.8 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 18.0 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 165 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 54 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 219 eachabove
- Stockout
- Mon Sep 28
- Recommended order
- noneby Wed Sep 23
- Inventory value
- $2,390at $9.60 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing10% weekly error, under-forecast62% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 10% on average (33% day by day), and it under-forecast by 6% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 27%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 144 | 124 | -20 | 14% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 159 | 123 | -36 | 23% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 128 | 123 | -5 | 4% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 145 | 123 | -22 | 15% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 126 | 123 | -3 | 2% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 122 | 123 | +1 | 1% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 102 | 123 | +21 | 21% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 121 | 123 | +2 | 2% |
| All 8 weeks | 1,047 | 986 | -61 | 6% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-954229 | FOLEY CATH INSERT KIT 16 FR SIL CS/10 | CS of 10 | $8.60 | 15 | $12,124 | AI 0.79 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW3538222 | Foley Catheter Insertion Kit, 16 Fr, Silicone - 10/Cs | CS of 10 | $8.70 | 14 | $4,961 | AI 0.88 |