Urinary Drainage Bag, 2000 mL, Anti-Reflux
Urology & DrainageNon-essential, 90% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-621329
Stock position
- On hand
- 268 each11.5 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 23.4 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 215 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 36 eachempirical 90th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 252 eachabove
- Stockout
- Sat Sep 26
- Recommended order
- noneby Tue Sep 22
- Inventory value
- $697at $2.60 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing14% weekly error, under-forecast0% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 14% on average (24% day by day), and it under-forecast by 4% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 14%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 135 | 161 | +26 | 19% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 145 | 161 | +16 | 11% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 176 | 161 | -15 | 9% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 187 | 161 | -26 | 14% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 140 | 161 | +21 | 15% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 208 | 161 | -47 | 23% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 154 | 161 | +7 | 5% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 195 | 161 | -34 | 17% |
| All 8 weeks | 1,340 | 1,290 | -50 | 4% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-621329 | URIN DRAIN BAG 2000 ML A/R CS/20 | CS of 20 | $2.26 | 14 | $5,704 | AI 0.68 |