Straight Catheter, 14 Fr, Intermittent
Urology & DrainageNon-essential, 90% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-191314
Stock position
- On hand
- 362 each12.2 days of supply
- On order
- 30 eachfirst arrives Wed Sep 16
- Forecast rate
- 29.6 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 272 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 97 eachempirical 90th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 368 eachabove
- Stockout
- Mon Sep 28
- Recommended order
- noneby Tue Sep 22
- Inventory value
- $434at $1.20 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing14% weekly error, under-forecast22% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 14% on average (23% day by day), and it under-forecast by 9% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 17%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 243 | 204 | -39 | 16% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 300 | 204 | -96 | 32% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 201 | 204 | +3 | 1% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 262 | 204 | -58 | 22% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 199 | 204 | +5 | 3% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 174 | 204 | +30 | 17% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 211 | 204 | -7 | 3% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 208 | 204 | -4 | 2% |
| All 8 weeks | 1,798 | 1,628 | -170 | 9% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-191314 | STR CATH 14 FR INTERM BX/30 | BX of 30 | $1.12 | 13 | $2,413 | AI 0.88 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW6060376 | Straight Catheter, 14 Fr, Intermittent - 30/Bx | BX of 30 | $1.13 | 13 | $1,083 | AI 0.88 |