Vancomycin HCl for Injection, 1 g Vial

Anti-infectivesVital, 99% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days00143935710

Stock position

On hand: 807 vial13.8 days of supply
On order: 129 vialfirst arrives Tue Sep 15
Forecast rate: 58.5 vial/daynext 30 days
Demand over 4 days: 256 viallead time plus review period
Safety stock: 94 vialempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point: 350 vialabove
Stockout: Wed Sep 30
Recommended order: noneby Mon Sep 28
Inventory value: $3,632at $4.50 per vial

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing11% weekly error, under-forecast8% better than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 11% on average (26% day by day), and it under-forecast by 6% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 12%.

Report card, week by week

Week of	Used	Forecast	Error	Error %
Tue Jul 21	379	404	+25	7%
Tue Jul 28	399	404	+5	1%
Tue Aug 4	464	404	-60	13%
Tue Aug 11	425	404	-21	5%
Tue Aug 18	352	404	+52	15%
Tue Aug 25	466	404	-62	13%
Tue Sep 1	444	404	-40	9%
Tue Sep 8	503	404	-99	20%
All 8 weeks	3,432	3,235	-197	6%

Weekly totals in vial. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.

Demand forecast

last 180 days and the next 30

actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowvial/day

The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.

Projected on hand

Projected on hand, vial: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Lots and expiry

Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.

Lot	Quantity	Expires	Days	Unit cost	Projected waste
L00018	308	Wed Jan 13	121	$4.50	0 vial · $0
L00017	499	Mon Nov 8	420	$4.50	0 vial · $0

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

Vendor	Part number	Vendor description	Sells by	Paid per vial	Invoices	90-day spend	Pairing
Harborline Pharmaceuticals	00143935710	VANCOMYCIN HCL 1 G/1 VIAL EA	EA of 1	$3.93	30	$15,417	NDC exact
Cobalt Rx Distributors	CRX-31611	VANCOM 1G/1 SDV 10CT	PK of 10	$4.09	13	$6,788	reviewed 0.90