Piperacillin-Tazobactam for Injection, 3.375 g Vial

Anti-infectivesVital, 99% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days63323030030

Stock position

On hand
1,684 vial23.9 days of supply
On order
38 vialfirst arrives Tue Sep 15
Forecast rate
70.4 vial/daynext 30 days
Demand over 4 days
301 viallead time plus review period
Safety stock
108 vialempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point
409 vialabove
Stockout
Fri Oct 9
Recommended order
noneby Tue Oct 6
Inventory value
$11,451at $6.80 per vial

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing10% weekly error, under-forecast32% worse than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 10% on average (21% day by day), and it under-forecast by 10% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 8%.

Report card, week by week

Week ofUsedForecastErrorError %
Tue Jul 21476486+102%
Tue Jul 28535486-499%
Tue Aug 4528486-428%
Tue Aug 11557486-7113%
Tue Aug 18535486-499%
Tue Aug 25650486-16425%
Tue Sep 1547486-6111%
Tue Sep 8484486+20%
All 8 weeks4,3123,890-42210%

Weekly totals in vial. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.

Demand forecast

last 180 days and the next 30
091183todayreport card windowThu Mar 19Wed Oct 14
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowvial/day

The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.

Projected on hand

0safety stock 108runs out Fri Oct 9tomorrowWed Oct 14
Projected on hand, vial: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Lots and expiry

Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.

LotQuantityExpiresDaysUnit costProjected waste
L000221,082Tue Jun 13638$6.800 vial · $0
L00021602Tue Jul 25680$6.800 vial · $0

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

VendorPart numberVendor descriptionSells byPaid per vialInvoices90-day spendPairing
Harborline Pharmaceuticals63323030030PIPERACILLIN NA,TAZOBACTAM NA 3; .375 G/15ML; G/15ML VIAL EAEA of 1$6.1029$29,178NDC exact
Cobalt Rx DistributorsCRX-22474PIPERA 3;.375G/15ML;G/15ML SDV 10CTPK of 10$6.3714$15,095reviewed 0.90