Ceftriaxone for Injection, 1 g Vial
Stock position
- On hand
- 1,916 vial22.6 days of supply
- On order
- 70 vialfirst arrives Tue Sep 15
- Forecast rate
- 84.8 vial/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 4 days
- 368 viallead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 128 vialempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 496 vialabove
- Stockout
- Thu Oct 8
- Recommended order
- noneby Mon Oct 5
- Inventory value
- $3,640at $1.90 per vial
How the forecast was made
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 11% on average (26% day by day), and it under-forecast by 8% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 13%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 521 | 586 | +65 | 12% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 757 | 586 | -171 | 23% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 590 | 586 | -4 | 1% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 611 | 586 | -25 | 4% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 692 | 586 | -106 | 15% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 726 | 586 | -140 | 19% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 601 | 586 | -15 | 2% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 574 | 586 | +12 | 2% |
| All 8 weeks | 5,072 | 4,685 | -387 | 8% |
Weekly totals in vial. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Lots and expiry
Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.
| Lot | Quantity | Expires | Days | Unit cost | Projected waste |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L00023 | 648 | Sat Aug 7 | 327 | $1.90 | 0 vial · $0 |
| L00024 | 1,268 | Sun Jun 18 | 643 | $1.90 | 0 vial · $0 |
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per vial | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harborline Pharmaceuticals | 00143985725 | CEFTRIAXONE 1 G/1 VIAL EA | EA of 1 | $1.67 | 34 | $11,155 | NDC exact |
| Cobalt Rx Distributors | CRX-28314 | CEFTRI 1G/1 SDV 10CT | PK of 10 | $1.75 | 14 | $4,769 | reviewed 0.90 |