Ceftriaxone for Injection, 1 g Vial
Anti-infectivesVital, 99% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days00143985725
Stock position
- On hand
- 1,916 vial22.6 days of supply
- On order
- 70 vialfirst arrives Tue Sep 15
- Forecast rate
- 84.8 vial/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 4 days
- 368 viallead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 128 vialempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 496 vialabove
- Stockout
- Thu Oct 8
- Recommended order
- noneby Mon Oct 5
- Inventory value
- $3,640at $1.90 per vial
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing11% weekly error, under-forecast19% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 11% on average (26% day by day), and it under-forecast by 8% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 13%.
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowvial/day
Projected on hand, vial: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Lots and expiry
Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.
| Lot | Quantity | Expires | Days | Unit cost | Projected waste |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L00023 | 648 | Sat Aug 7 | 327 | $1.90 | 0 vial · $0 |
| L00024 | 1,268 | Sun Jun 18 | 643 | $1.90 | 0 vial · $0 |
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per vial | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harborline Pharmaceuticals | 00143985725 | CEFTRIAXONE 1 G/1 VIAL EA | EA of 1 | $1.67 | 34 | $11,155 | stand-in |
| Cobalt Rx Distributors | CRX-28314 | CEFTRI 1G/1 SDV 10CT | PK of 10 | $1.75 | 14 | $4,769 | stand-in |