Meropenem for Injection, 1 g Vial

Anti-infectivesVital, 99% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days00143943110

Stock position

On hand
623 vial18.5 days of supply
On order
0 vialnothing open
Forecast rate
33.6 vial/daynext 30 days
Demand over 4 days
145 viallead time plus review period
Safety stock
45 vialempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point
191 vialabove
Stockout
Sat Oct 3
Recommended order
noneby Thu Oct 1
Inventory value
$5,919at $9.50 per vial

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing5% weekly error, under-forecast6% better than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 5% on average (25% day by day), and it under-forecast by 3% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 5%.

Report card, week by week

Week ofUsedForecastErrorError %
Tue Jul 21224223-10%
Tue Jul 28231223-83%
Tue Aug 4228223-52%
Tue Aug 11213223+105%
Tue Aug 18220223+31%
Tue Aug 25251223-2811%
Tue Sep 1241223-187%
Tue Sep 8236223-136%
All 8 weeks1,8441,785-593%

Weekly totals in vial. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.

Demand forecast

last 180 days and the next 30
03672todayreport card windowThu Mar 19Wed Oct 14
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowvial/day

The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.

Projected on hand

0safety stock 45runs out Sat Oct 3tomorrowThu Oct 8
Projected on hand, vial: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Lots and expiry

Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.

LotQuantityExpiresDaysUnit costProjected waste
L00025256Sun Sep 19370$9.500 vial · $0
L00026367Sun Jul 16671$9.500 vial · $0

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

VendorPart numberVendor descriptionSells byPaid per vialInvoices90-day spendPairing
Harborline Pharmaceuticals00143943110MEROPENEM 1 G/30ML VIAL EAEA of 1$8.8933$30,633NDC exact