SupplyIQCascade Ridge Medical Center
Today

Metronidazole in NaCl, 500 mg/100 mL Bag

Anti-infectivesEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days00409015224

Stock position

On hand
841 bag20.4 days of supply
On order
38 bagfirst arrives Tue Sep 15
Forecast rate
41.1 bag/daynext 30 days
Demand over 4 days
178 baglead time plus review period
Safety stock
44 bagempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point
222 bagabove
Stockout
Tue Oct 6
Recommended order
noneby Sun Oct 4
Inventory value
$1,346at $1.60 per bag

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing12% weekly error, unbiased2% worse than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 12% on average (28% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 11%.

04590todayreport card windowThu Mar 19Wed Oct 14
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowbag/day
0safety stock 44runs out Tue Oct 6tomorrowSun Oct 11
Projected on hand, bag: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Lots and expiry

Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.

LotQuantityExpiresDaysUnit costProjected waste
L00032350Tue Jan 12120$1.600 bag · $0
L00031491Fri Apr 2200$1.600 bag · $0

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

VendorPart numberVendor descriptionSells byPaid per bagInvoices90-day spendPairing
Harborline Pharmaceuticals00409015224METRONIDAZOLE 5 MG/ML BAG EAEA of 1$1.5032$4,089stand-in
Cobalt Rx DistributorsCRX-03268METRON 5 BAG 24CTCS of 24$1.5614$1,764stand-in