Fluconazole in NaCl, 200 mg/100 mL Bag

Anti-infectivesEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days00409343524

Stock position

On hand: 270 bag17.4 days of supply
On order: 0 bagnothing open
Forecast rate: 15.5 bag/daynext 30 days
Demand over 4 days: 67 baglead time plus review period
Safety stock: 14 bagempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point: 81 bagabove
Stockout: Fri Oct 2
Recommended order: noneby Wed Sep 30
Inventory value: $1,053at $3.90 per bag

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing16% weekly error, over-forecast21% better than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 16% on average (34% day by day), and it over-forecast by 7% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 20%.

Report card, week by week

Week of	Used	Forecast	Error	Error %
Tue Jul 21	88	108	+20	23%
Tue Jul 28	85	108	+23	27%
Tue Aug 4	88	108	+20	23%
Tue Aug 11	129	108	-21	16%
Tue Aug 18	97	108	+11	11%
Tue Aug 25	100	108	+8	8%
Tue Sep 1	100	108	+8	8%
Tue Sep 8	125	108	-17	14%
All 8 weeks	812	867	+55	7%

Weekly totals in bag. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.

Demand forecast

last 180 days and the next 30

actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowbag/day

The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.

Projected on hand

Projected on hand, bag: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Lots and expiry

Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.

Lot	Quantity	Expires	Days	Unit cost	Projected waste
L00033	270	Thu Nov 18	430	$3.90	0 bag · $0

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

Vendor	Part number	Vendor description	Sells by	Paid per bag	Invoices	90-day spend	Pairing
Harborline Pharmaceuticals	00409343524	FLUCONAZOLE 200 MG/100ML BAG EA	EA of 1	$3.34	35	$3,853	NDC exact
Cobalt Rx Distributors	CRX-38846	FLUCON 200MG/100ML BAG 1CT	EA of 1	$3.47	14	$1,455	AI 0.60
Summit Clinical Products	SC-556227	FLUCON 200MG/100ML BAG 1CT	EA of 1	$3.65	8	$580	AI 0.60