Oseltamivir Phosphate, 75 mg Capsule
Stock position
- On hand
- 246 capsule25.5 days of supply
- On order
- 0 capsulenothing open
- Forecast rate
- 9.6 capsule/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 4 days
- 42 capsulelead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 11 capsuleempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 53 capsuleabove
- Stockout
- Sat Oct 10
- Recommended order
- noneby Thu Oct 8
- Inventory value
- $295at $1.20 per capsule
How the forecast was made
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 19% on average (35% day by day), and it over-forecast by 11% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 21%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 87 | 80 | -7 | 8% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 97 | 80 | -17 | 18% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 58 | 80 | +22 | 38% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 66 | 80 | +14 | 21% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 77 | 80 | +3 | 4% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 78 | 80 | +2 | 3% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 60 | 80 | +20 | 33% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 55 | 80 | +25 | 45% |
| All 8 weeks | 578 | 644 | +66 | 11% |
Weekly totals in capsule. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Lots and expiry
Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.
| Lot | Quantity | Expires | Days | Unit cost | Projected waste |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L00034 | 246 | Sun May 30 | 258 | $1.20 | 0 capsule · $0 |
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per capsule | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harborline Pharmaceuticals | 60219126601 | OSELTAMIVIR 75 MG/1 CAP 10/BT | BT of 10 | $1.04 | 31 | $780 | NDC exact |
| Cobalt Rx Distributors | CRX-24356 | OSELTA 75MG/1 CAP 100CT | CS of 100 | $1.07 | 3 | $322 | reviewed 0.90 |