Oseltamivir Phosphate, 75 mg Capsule
Anti-infectivesEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days60219126601
Stock position
- On hand
- 246 capsule25.5 days of supply
- On order
- 0 capsulenothing open
- Forecast rate
- 9.6 capsule/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 4 days
- 42 capsulelead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 11 capsuleempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 53 capsuleabove
- Stockout
- Sat Oct 10
- Recommended order
- noneby Thu Oct 8
- Inventory value
- $295at $1.20 per capsule
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing19% weekly error, over-forecast8% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 19% on average (35% day by day), and it over-forecast by 11% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 21%.
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowcapsule/day
Projected on hand, capsule: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Lots and expiry
Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.
| Lot | Quantity | Expires | Days | Unit cost | Projected waste |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L00034 | 246 | Sun May 30 | 258 | $1.20 | 0 capsule · $0 |
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per capsule | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harborline Pharmaceuticals | 60219126601 | OSELTAMIVIR 75 MG/1 CAP 10/BT | BT of 10 | $1.04 | 31 | $780 | stand-in |
| Cobalt Rx Distributors | CRX-24356 | OSELTA 75MG/1 CAP 100CT | CS of 100 | $1.07 | 3 | $322 | stand-in |