Morphine Sulfate Injection, 4 mg/mL, 1 mL Vial
Stock position
- On hand
- 791 vial11.5 days of supply
- On order
- 0 vialnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 68.8 vial/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 4 days
- 300 viallead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 152 vialempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 452 vialabove
- Stockout
- Sat Sep 26
- Recommended order
- noneby Wed Sep 23
- Inventory value
- $870at $1.10 per vial
How the forecast was made
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 12% on average (30% day by day), and it under-forecast by 6% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 12%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 450 | 469 | +19 | 4% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 407 | 469 | +62 | 15% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 621 | 469 | -152 | 24% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 563 | 469 | -94 | 17% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 453 | 469 | +16 | 4% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 457 | 469 | +12 | 3% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 537 | 469 | -68 | 13% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 518 | 469 | -49 | 9% |
| All 8 weeks | 4,006 | 3,751 | -255 | 6% |
Weekly totals in vial. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Lots and expiry
Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.
| Lot | Quantity | Expires | Days | Unit cost | Projected waste |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L00039 | 303 | Thu Apr 8 | 206 | $1.10 | 0 vial · $0 |
| L00038 | 488 | Fri May 14 | 242 | $1.10 | 0 vial · $0 |
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per vial | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harborline Pharmaceuticals | 00641612525 | MORPHINE SULFATE 4 MG/ML VIAL EA | EA of 1 | $0.94 | 34 | $6,526 | NDC exact |
| Summit Clinical Products | SC-497784 | MORPHI 4 SDV 1CT | EA of 1 | $0.99 | 7 | $645 | reviewed 0.90 |