Morphine Sulfate Injection, 4 mg/mL, 1 mL Vial
Analgesia & AnesthesiaVital, 99% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days00641612525
Stock position
- On hand
- 791 vial11.5 days of supply
- On order
- 0 vialnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 68.8 vial/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 4 days
- 300 viallead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 152 vialempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 452 vialabove
- Stockout
- Sat Sep 26
- Recommended order
- noneby Wed Sep 23
- Inventory value
- $870at $1.10 per vial
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing12% weekly error, under-forecast0% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 12% on average (30% day by day), and it under-forecast by 6% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 12%.
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowvial/day
Projected on hand, vial: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Lots and expiry
Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.
| Lot | Quantity | Expires | Days | Unit cost | Projected waste |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L00039 | 303 | Thu Apr 8 | 206 | $1.10 | 0 vial · $0 |
| L00038 | 488 | Fri May 14 | 242 | $1.10 | 0 vial · $0 |
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per vial | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harborline Pharmaceuticals | 00641612525 | MORPHINE SULFATE 4 MG/ML VIAL EA | EA of 1 | $0.94 | 34 | $6,526 | stand-in |
| Summit Clinical Products | SC-497784 | MORPHI 4 SDV 1CT | EA of 1 | $0.99 | 7 | $645 | stand-in |