Hydromorphone HCl Injection, 1 mg/mL, 1 mL Vial
Analgesia & AnesthesiaVital, 99% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days00641616910
Stock position
- On hand
- 1,618 vial17.8 days of supply
- On order
- 136 vialfirst arrives Tue Sep 15
- Forecast rate
- 90.6 vial/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 4 days
- 391 viallead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 115 vialempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 506 vialabove
- Stockout
- Sun Oct 4
- Recommended order
- noneby Thu Oct 1
- Inventory value
- $2,103at $1.30 per vial
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing8% weekly error, unbiased54% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 8% on average (25% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 18%.
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowvial/day
Projected on hand, vial: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Lots and expiry
Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.
| Lot | Quantity | Expires | Days | Unit cost | Projected waste |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L00041 | 729 | Thu Jan 6 | 479 | $1.30 | 0 vial · $0 |
| L00040 | 889 | Sat Apr 1 | 565 | $1.30 | 0 vial · $0 |
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per vial | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harborline Pharmaceuticals | 00641616910 | HYDROMORPHONE HCL 1 MG/ML VIAL EA | EA of 1 | $1.22 | 31 | $7,737 | stand-in |
| Cobalt Rx Distributors | CRX-10800 | HYDROM 1 SDV 1CT | EA of 1 | $1.24 | 14 | $3,356 | stand-in |