SupplyIQCascade Ridge Medical Center
Today

Hydromorphone HCl Injection, 1 mg/mL, 1 mL Vial

Analgesia & AnesthesiaVital, 99% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days00641616910

Stock position

On hand
1,618 vial17.8 days of supply
On order
136 vialfirst arrives Tue Sep 15
Forecast rate
90.6 vial/daynext 30 days
Demand over 4 days
391 viallead time plus review period
Safety stock
115 vialempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point
506 vialabove
Stockout
Sun Oct 4
Recommended order
noneby Thu Oct 1
Inventory value
$2,103at $1.30 per vial

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing8% weekly error, unbiased54% better than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 8% on average (25% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 18%.

0102204todayreport card windowThu Mar 19Wed Oct 14
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowvial/day
0safety stock 115runs out Sun Oct 4tomorrowFri Oct 9
Projected on hand, vial: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Lots and expiry

Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.

LotQuantityExpiresDaysUnit costProjected waste
L00041729Thu Jan 6479$1.300 vial · $0
L00040889Sat Apr 1565$1.300 vial · $0

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

VendorPart numberVendor descriptionSells byPaid per vialInvoices90-day spendPairing
Harborline Pharmaceuticals00641616910HYDROMORPHONE HCL 1 MG/ML VIAL EAEA of 1$1.2231$7,737stand-in
Cobalt Rx DistributorsCRX-10800HYDROM 1 SDV 1CTEA of 1$1.2414$3,356stand-in