Propofol Injectable Emulsion, 1%, 20 mL Vial
Analgesia & AnesthesiaVital, 99% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days00641619410
Stock position
- On hand
- 2,513 vial22.4 days of supply
- On order
- 0 vialnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 112.3 vial/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 4 days
- 480 viallead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 153 vialempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 633 vialabove
- Stockout
- Wed Oct 7
- Recommended order
- noneby Mon Oct 5
- Inventory value
- $7,288at $2.90 per vial
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing10% weekly error, under-forecast77% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 10% on average (22% day by day), and it under-forecast by 5% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 45%.
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowvial/day
Projected on hand, vial: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Lots and expiry
Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.
| Lot | Quantity | Expires | Days | Unit cost | Projected waste |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L00050 | 817 | Sun Oct 10 | 391 | $2.90 | 0 vial · $0 |
| L00051 | 1,696 | Tue Feb 22 | 526 | $2.90 | 0 vial · $0 |
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per vial | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harborline Pharmaceuticals | 00641619410 | PROPOFOL 10 MG/ML VIAL EA | EA of 1 | $2.74 | 33 | $23,542 | stand-in |
| Cobalt Rx Distributors | CRX-06486 | PROPOF 10 SDV 25CT | PK of 25 | $2.85 | 14 | $9,835 | stand-in |
3 of 33 invoices in the last 90 days were above the contract price. Those lines averaged $3.10 per EA vs $2.70 contracted: 15% more, $322 overpaid in 90 days, about $1,305 a year at that rate.