Rocuronium Bromide Injection, 50 mg/5 mL Vial

Analgesia & AnesthesiaVital, 99% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days00143925010

Stock position

On hand: 648 vial16.7 days of supply
On order: 65 vialfirst arrives Mon Sep 14
Forecast rate: 38.8 vial/daynext 30 days
Demand over 4 days: 168 viallead time plus review period
Safety stock: 57 vialempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point: 224 vialabove
Stockout: Thu Oct 1
Recommended order: noneby Tue Sep 29
Inventory value: $2,203at $3.40 per vial

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing9% weekly error, unbiased14% better than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 9% on average (27% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 11%.

Report card, week by week

Week of	Used	Forecast	Error	Error %
Tue Jul 21	288	269	-19	7%
Tue Jul 28	232	269	+37	16%
Tue Aug 4	292	269	-23	8%
Tue Aug 11	289	269	-20	7%
Tue Aug 18	256	269	+13	5%
Tue Aug 25	289	269	-20	7%
Tue Sep 1	236	269	+33	14%
Tue Sep 8	310	269	-41	13%
All 8 weeks	2,192	2,155	-37	2%

Weekly totals in vial. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.

Demand forecast

last 180 days and the next 30

actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowvial/day

The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.

Projected on hand

Projected on hand, vial: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Lots and expiry

Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.

Lot	Quantity	Expires	Days	Unit cost	Projected waste
L00052	648	Sun Jul 9	664	$3.40	0 vial · $0

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

Vendor	Part number	Vendor description	Sells by	Paid per vial	Invoices	90-day spend	Pairing
Harborline Pharmaceuticals	00143925010	ROCURONIUM BROMIDE 10 MG/ML VIAL EA	EA of 1	$2.92	32	$7,940	NDC exact
Cobalt Rx Distributors	CRX-30562	ROCURO 10 SDV 1CT	EA of 1	$3.13	14	$3,637	reviewed 0.90