Dexmedetomidine in NaCl, 400 mcg/100 mL Bag

Analgesia & AnesthesiaEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days00143919810

Stock position

On hand: 310 bag22.4 days of supply
On order: 0 bagnothing open
Forecast rate: 13.8 bag/daynext 30 days
Demand over 4 days: 60 baglead time plus review period
Safety stock: 20 bagempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point: 80 bagabove
Stockout: Wed Oct 7
Recommended order: noneby Mon Oct 5
Inventory value: $6,820at $22.00 per bag

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing12% weekly error, unbiased3% better than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 12% on average (36% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 13%.

Report card, week by week

Week of	Used	Forecast	Error	Error %
Tue Jul 21	104	96	-8	8%
Tue Jul 28	86	96	+10	12%
Tue Aug 4	95	96	+1	1%
Tue Aug 11	106	96	-10	9%
Tue Aug 18	127	96	-31	24%
Tue Aug 25	82	96	+14	17%
Tue Sep 1	94	96	+2	2%
Tue Sep 8	77	96	+19	25%
All 8 weeks	771	770	-1	0%

Weekly totals in bag. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.

Demand forecast

last 180 days and the next 30

actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowbag/day

The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.

Projected on hand

Projected on hand, bag: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Lots and expiry

Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.

Lot	Quantity	Expires	Days	Unit cost	Projected waste
L00057	200	Tue Feb 16	155	$22.00	0 bag · $0
L00056	110	Fri Aug 13	333	$22.00	0 bag · $0

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

Vendor	Part number	Vendor description	Sells by	Paid per bag	Invoices	90-day spend	Pairing
Harborline Pharmaceuticals	00143919810	DEXMEDETOMIDINE HCL 4 UG/ML BAG EA	EA of 1	$20.56	33	$31,223	NDC exact