SupplyIQCascade Ridge Medical Center
Today

Bupivacaine HCl Injection, 0.5%, 30 mL Vial

Analgesia & AnesthesiaEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days00143932810

Stock position

On hand
625 vial21.4 days of supply
On order
0 vialnothing open
Forecast rate
29.1 vial/daynext 30 days
Demand over 4 days
125 viallead time plus review period
Safety stock
28 vialempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point
153 vialabove
Stockout
Tue Oct 6
Recommended order
noneby Sun Oct 4
Inventory value
$1,625at $2.60 per vial

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing10% weekly error, unbiased70% better than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 10% on average (36% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 34%.

03979todayreport card windowThu Mar 19Wed Oct 14
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowvial/day
0safety stock 28runs out Tue Oct 6tomorrowSun Oct 11
Projected on hand, vial: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Lots and expiry

Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.

LotQuantityExpiresDaysUnit costProjected waste
L00059290Sun Apr 4202$2.600 vial · $0
L00058335Sun Mar 12545$2.600 vial · $0

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

VendorPart numberVendor descriptionSells byPaid per vialInvoices90-day spendPairing
Harborline Pharmaceuticals00143932810BUPIVACAINE HCL 2.5 MG/ML VIAL EAEA of 1$2.4833$5,414stand-in
Cobalt Rx DistributorsCRX-42534BUPIVA 2.5 SDV 25CTPK of 25$2.5014$2,185stand-in