Metoprolol Tartrate Injection, 5 mg/5 mL Vial

Critical CareEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days00143987310

Stock position

On hand: 394 vial10 days of supply
On order: 0 vialnothing open
Forecast rate: 39.3 vial/daynext 30 days
Demand over 4 days: 173 viallead time plus review period
Safety stock: 37 vialempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point: 209 vialabove
Stockout: Thu Sep 24
Recommended order: noneby Tue Sep 22
Inventory value: $630at $1.60 per vial

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing10% weekly error, unbiased4% worse than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 10% on average (27% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 10%.

Report card, week by week

Week of	Used	Forecast	Error	Error %
Tue Jul 21	265	273	+8	3%
Tue Jul 28	304	273	-31	10%
Tue Aug 4	275	273	-2	1%
Tue Aug 11	218	273	+55	25%
Tue Aug 18	243	273	+30	12%
Tue Aug 25	318	273	-45	14%
Tue Sep 1	256	273	+17	7%
Tue Sep 8	244	273	+29	12%
All 8 weeks	2,123	2,181	+58	3%

Weekly totals in vial. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.

Demand forecast

last 180 days and the next 30

actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowvial/day

The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.

Projected on hand

Projected on hand, vial: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Lots and expiry

Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.

Lot	Quantity	Expires	Days	Unit cost	Projected waste
L00067	262	Wed Sep 15	366	$1.60	0 vial · $0
L00068	132	Mon Jul 17	672	$1.60	0 vial · $0

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

Vendor	Part number	Vendor description	Sells by	Paid per vial	Invoices	90-day spend	Pairing
Harborline Pharmaceuticals	00143987310	METOPROLOL TARTRATE 5 MG/5ML VIAL EA	EA of 1	$1.41	30	$3,608	NDC exact
Cobalt Rx Distributors	CRX-73787	METOPR 5MG/5ML SDV 10CT	PK of 10	$1.44	14	$1,637	reviewed 0.90