Enoxaparin Sodium Injection, 40 mg/0.4 mL Prefilled Syringe
Stock position
- On hand
- 3,168 syringe23.4 days of supply
- On order
- 0 syringenothing open
- Forecast rate
- 135.3 syringe/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 4 days
- 589 syringelead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 164 syringeempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 754 syringeabove
- Stockout
- Thu Oct 8
- Recommended order
- noneby Tue Oct 6
- Inventory value
- $10,138at $3.20 per syringe
How the forecast was made
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 9% on average (22% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 11%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 1,048 | 938 | -110 | 10% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 1,030 | 938 | -92 | 9% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 761 | 938 | +177 | 23% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 979 | 938 | -41 | 4% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 982 | 938 | -44 | 4% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 933 | 938 | +5 | 1% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 897 | 938 | +41 | 5% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 1,085 | 938 | -147 | 14% |
| All 8 weeks | 7,715 | 7,506 | -209 | 3% |
Weekly totals in syringe. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Lots and expiry
Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.
| Lot | Quantity | Expires | Days | Unit cost | Projected waste |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L00072 | 1,945 | Fri Jan 8 | 116 | $3.20 | 0 syringe · $0 |
| L00073 | 1,223 | Mon Nov 8 | 420 | $3.20 | 0 syringe · $0 |
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per syringe | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harborline Pharmaceuticals | 63323053587 | ENOXAPARIN NA 40 MG/.4ML SYR EA | EA of 1 | $3.03 | 30 | $28,323 | NDC exact |
| Cobalt Rx Distributors | CRX-53823 | ENOXAP 40MG/.4ML PFS 1CT | EA of 1 | $2.82 | 13 | $11,644 | reviewed 0.90 |
30 of 30 invoices in the last 90 days were above the contract price. Those lines averaged $3.03 per EA vs $2.78 contracted: 9% more, $2,358 overpaid in 90 days, about $9,561 a year at that rate.