Calcium Gluconate Injection, 1 g/10 mL Vial

Critical CareEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days00143918025

Stock position

On hand: 329 vial14.5 days of supply
On order: 0 vialnothing open
Forecast rate: 22.8 vial/daynext 30 days
Demand over 4 days: 98 viallead time plus review period
Safety stock: 31 vialempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point: 129 vialabove
Stockout: Tue Sep 29
Recommended order: noneby Sun Sep 27
Inventory value: $954at $2.90 per vial

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing12% weekly error, under-forecast45% better than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 12% on average (26% day by day), and it under-forecast by 10% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 23%.

Report card, week by week

Week of	Used	Forecast	Error	Error %
Tue Jul 21	169	150	-19	11%
Tue Jul 28	159	150	-9	6%
Tue Aug 4	174	150	-24	14%
Tue Aug 11	137	150	+13	9%
Tue Aug 18	196	150	-46	23%
Tue Aug 25	183	150	-33	18%
Tue Sep 1	156	150	-6	4%
Tue Sep 8	168	150	-18	11%
All 8 weeks	1,342	1,203	-139	10%

Weekly totals in vial. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.

Demand forecast

last 180 days and the next 30

actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowvial/day

The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.

Projected on hand

Projected on hand, vial: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Lots and expiry

Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.

Lot	Quantity	Expires	Days	Unit cost	Projected waste
L00078	329	Sun Mar 5	538	$2.90	0 vial · $0

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

Vendor	Part number	Vendor description	Sells by	Paid per vial	Invoices	90-day spend	Pairing
Harborline Pharmaceuticals	00143918025	CALCIUM GLUCONATE 98 MG/ML VIAL EA	EA of 1	$2.63	33	$4,129	NDC exact
Cobalt Rx Distributors	CRX-91474	CALCIU 98 SDV 1CT	EA of 1	$2.77	14	$1,986	reviewed 0.90