Furosemide Injection, 40 mg/4 mL Vial

Critical CareEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days00143915525

Stock position

On hand
1,165 vial11.3 days of supply
On order
106 vialfirst arrives Tue Sep 15
Forecast rate
102.8 vial/daynext 30 days
Demand over 4 days
440 viallead time plus review period
Safety stock
169 vialempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point
608 vialabove
Stockout
Sun Sep 27
Recommended order
noneby Thu Sep 24
Inventory value
$1,282at $1.10 per vial

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing11% weekly error, under-forecast19% better than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 11% on average (27% day by day), and it under-forecast by 8% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 13%.

Report card, week by week

Week ofUsedForecastErrorError %
Tue Jul 21824688-13617%
Tue Jul 28734688-466%
Tue Aug 4705688-172%
Tue Aug 11782688-9412%
Tue Aug 18695688-71%
Tue Aug 25902688-21424%
Tue Sep 1616688+7212%
Tue Sep 8752688-649%
All 8 weeks6,0105,508-5028%

Weekly totals in vial. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.

Demand forecast

last 180 days and the next 30
0130260todayreport card windowThu Mar 19Wed Oct 14
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowvial/day

The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.

Projected on hand

0safety stock 169runs out Sun Sep 27tomorrowFri Oct 2
Projected on hand, vial: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Lots and expiry

Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.

LotQuantityExpiresDaysUnit costProjected waste
L000841,165Mon Feb 28532$1.100 vial · $0

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

VendorPart numberVendor descriptionSells byPaid per vialInvoices90-day spendPairing
Harborline Pharmaceuticals00143915525FUROSEMIDE 10 MG/ML VIAL EAEA of 1$0.9833$7,058NDC exact
Cobalt Rx DistributorsCRX-55531FUROSE 10 SDV 1CTEA of 1$0.9614$3,047reviewed 0.90