Insulin Regular (Human), 100 units/mL, 10 mL Vial
EndocrineVital, 99% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days00002821501
Stock position
- On hand
- 247 vial21 days of supply
- On order
- 8 vialfirst arrives Tue Sep 15
- Forecast rate
- 11.7 vial/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 4 days
- 51 viallead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 15 vialempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 66 vialabove
- Stockout
- Tue Oct 6
- Recommended order
- noneby Sun Oct 4
- Inventory value
- $6,916at $28.00 per vial
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing11% weekly error, unbiased17% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 11% on average (33% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 13%.
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowvial/day
Projected on hand, vial: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Lots and expiry
Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.
| Lot | Quantity | Expires | Days | Unit cost | Projected waste |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L00085 | 91 | Thu Aug 26 | 346 | $28.00 | 0 vial · $0 |
| L00086 | 156 | Wed Jun 21 | 646 | $28.00 | 0 vial · $0 |
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per vial | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harborline Pharmaceuticals | 00002821501 | INSULIN HUMAN 100 [IU]/ML VIAL EA | EA of 1 | $24.92 | 35 | $22,978 | stand-in |
| Cobalt Rx Distributors | CRX-17046 | INSULI 100[IU]/ML SDV 1CT | EA of 1 | $25.47 | 13 | $8,480 | stand-in |