Dextrose Injection, 50%, 50 mL Prefilled Syringe

Critical CareVital, 99% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 daysHL28351494

Stock position

On hand: 277 syringe22.7 days of supply
On order: 0 syringenothing open
Forecast rate: 12.2 syringe/daynext 30 days
Demand over 4 days: 53 syringelead time plus review period
Safety stock: 33 syringeempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point: 86 syringeabove
Stockout: Wed Oct 7
Recommended order: noneby Sun Oct 4
Inventory value: $2,161at $7.80 per syringe

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing11% weekly error, unbiased11% better than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 11% on average (35% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 12%.

Report card, week by week

Week of	Used	Forecast	Error	Error %
Tue Jul 21	77	85	+8	10%
Tue Jul 28	113	85	-28	25%
Tue Aug 4	90	85	-5	6%
Tue Aug 11	70	85	+15	21%
Tue Aug 18	80	85	+5	6%
Tue Aug 25	87	85	-2	2%
Tue Sep 1	95	85	-10	11%
Tue Sep 8	85	85	-0	0%
All 8 weeks	697	676	-21	3%

Weekly totals in syringe. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.

Demand forecast

last 180 days and the next 30

actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowsyringe/day

The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.

Projected on hand

Projected on hand, syringe: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Lots and expiry

Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.

Lot	Quantity	Expires	Days	Unit cost	Projected waste
L00089	170	Thu Apr 22	220	$7.80	0 syringe · $0
L00088	107	Sat Feb 26	530	$7.80	0 syringe · $0

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

Vendor	Part number	Vendor description	Sells by	Paid per syringe	Invoices	90-day spend	Pairing
Harborline Pharmaceuticals	HL28351494	DEXTROSE INJECTION SYR EA	EA of 1	$7.07	32	$6,394	AI 0.65
Cobalt Rx Distributors	CRX-82233	DEXTRO PFS 10CT	PK of 10	$7.12	14	$2,707	reviewed 0.90