Naloxone HCl Injection, 0.4 mg/mL, 1 mL Vial

Critical CareVital, 99% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days00641619310

Stock position

On hand: 317 vial19.2 days of supply
On order: 10 vialfirst arrives Wed Sep 16
Forecast rate: 16.5 vial/daynext 30 days
Demand over 4 days: 72 viallead time plus review period
Safety stock: 34 vialempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point: 106 vialabove
Stockout: Mon Oct 5
Recommended order: noneby Thu Oct 1
Inventory value: $824at $2.60 per vial

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing14% weekly error, under-forecast17% worse than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 14% on average (31% day by day), and it under-forecast by 10% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 12%.

Report card, week by week

Week of	Used	Forecast	Error	Error %
Tue Jul 21	125	114	-11	9%
Tue Jul 28	148	114	-34	23%
Tue Aug 4	124	114	-10	8%
Tue Aug 11	150	114	-36	24%
Tue Aug 18	118	114	-4	3%
Tue Aug 25	103	114	+11	11%
Tue Sep 1	138	114	-24	17%
Tue Sep 8	103	114	+11	11%
All 8 weeks	1,009	911	-98	10%

Weekly totals in vial. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.

Demand forecast

last 180 days and the next 30

actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowvial/day

The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.

Projected on hand

Projected on hand, vial: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Lots and expiry

Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.

Lot	Quantity	Expires	Days	Unit cost	Projected waste
L00091	161	Thu Nov 18	430	$2.60	0 vial · $0
L00090	156	Fri Dec 17	459	$2.60	0 vial · $0

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

Vendor	Part number	Vendor description	Sells by	Paid per vial	Invoices	90-day spend	Pairing
Harborline Pharmaceuticals	00641619310	NALOXONE HCL .4 MG/ML VIAL EA	EA of 1	$2.42	31	$3,073	NDC exact
Cobalt Rx Distributors	CRX-74986	NALOXO .4 SDV 10CT	PK of 10	$2.51	14	$1,429	reviewed 0.90