Lactated Ringer's Injection, 1000 mL Bag

IV FluidsVital, 99% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days63323016476

Stock position

On hand: 3,845 bag16 days of supply
On order: 0 bagnothing open
Forecast rate: 240.7 bag/daynext 30 days
Demand over 4 days: 1,051 baglead time plus review period
Safety stock: 391 bagempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point: 1,442 bagabove
Stockout: Wed Sep 30
Recommended order: noneby Mon Sep 28
Inventory value: $7,498at $1.95 per bag

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing10% weekly error, under-forecast6% better than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 10% on average (27% day by day), and it under-forecast by 7% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 11%.

Report card, week by week

Week of	Used	Forecast	Error	Error %
Tue Jul 21	1,542	1,610	+68	4%
Tue Jul 28	1,711	1,610	-101	6%
Tue Aug 4	1,782	1,610	-172	10%
Tue Aug 11	1,709	1,610	-99	6%
Tue Aug 18	1,846	1,610	-236	13%
Tue Aug 25	2,025	1,610	-415	20%
Tue Sep 1	1,787	1,610	-177	10%
Tue Sep 8	1,479	1,610	+131	9%
All 8 weeks	13,881	12,881	-1,000	7%

Weekly totals in bag. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.

Demand forecast

last 180 days and the next 30

actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowbag/day

The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.

Projected on hand

Projected on hand, bag: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Lots and expiry

Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.

Lot	Quantity	Expires	Days	Unit cost	Projected waste
L00096	2,260	Sat Feb 27	166	$1.95	0 bag · $0
L00097	1,585	Sun Feb 13	517	$1.95	0 bag · $0

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

Vendor	Part number	Vendor description	Sells by	Paid per bag	Invoices	90-day spend	Pairing
Harborline Pharmaceuticals	63323016476	NA CHLORIDE, NA LACTATE, POTASSIUM CHLORIDE, CALCIUM CHLORIDE 600; 310; 30; 20 MG/100ML; MG/100ML; MG/100ML; MG/100ML BAG EA	EA of 1	$1.71	32	$28,039	NDC exact
Cobalt Rx Distributors	CRX-56193	SODIUM 600;310;30;20MG/100ML;MG/100ML;MG/100ML;MG/100ML BAG 12CT	CS of 12	$1.75	13	$11,774	AI 0.70