SupplyIQCascade Ridge Medical Center
Today

Sterile Water for Injection, 10 mL Vial

IV FluidsNon-essential, 90% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days00641614710

Stock position

On hand
3,927 vial21.2 days of supply
On order
0 vialnothing open
Forecast rate
184.9 vial/daynext 30 days
Demand over 4 days
802 viallead time plus review period
Safety stock
129 vialempirical 90th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point
930 vialabove
Stockout
Tue Oct 6
Recommended order
noneby Sun Oct 4
Inventory value
$1,571at $0.40 per vial

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing6% weekly error, unbiased66% better than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 6% on average (22% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 18%.

0208417todayreport card windowThu Mar 19Wed Oct 14
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowvial/day
0safety stock 129runs out Tue Oct 6tomorrowSun Oct 11
Projected on hand, vial: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Lots and expiry

Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.

LotQuantityExpiresDaysUnit costProjected waste
L001023,927Wed Sep 6723$0.400 vial · $0

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

VendorPart numberVendor descriptionSells byPaid per vialInvoices90-day spendPairing
Harborline Pharmaceuticals00641614710WATER 1 ML/ML VIAL EAEA of 1$0.3631$4,340stand-in
Cobalt Rx DistributorsCRX-83329WATER 1ML/ML SDV 1CTEA of 1$0.3714$1,961stand-in