Pantoprazole Sodium for Injection, 40 mg Vial

GastrointestinalEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days00143928410

Stock position

On hand: 8,916 vial178.3 days of supply
On order: 69 vialfirst arrives Mon Sep 14
Forecast rate: 50.0 vial/daynext 30 days
Demand over 4 days: 215 viallead time plus review period
Safety stock: 39 vialempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point: 254 vialabove
Stockout: not projected
Recommended order: none
Inventory value: $24,965at $2.80 per vial

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing10% weekly error, under-forecast29% better than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 10% on average (25% day by day), and it under-forecast by 4% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 14%.

Report card, week by week

Week of	Used	Forecast	Error	Error %
Tue Jul 21	327	317	-10	3%
Tue Jul 28	312	315	+3	1%
Tue Aug 4	370	314	-56	15%
Tue Aug 11	323	314	-9	3%
Tue Aug 18	261	314	+53	20%
Tue Aug 25	367	314	-53	14%
Tue Sep 1	296	314	+18	6%
Tue Sep 8	372	314	-58	16%
All 8 weeks	2,628	2,516	-112	4%

Weekly totals in vial. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.

Demand forecast

last 180 days and the next 30

actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowvial/day

The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.

Projected on hand

Projected on hand, vial: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Lots and expiry

Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.

Lot	Quantity	Expires	Days	Unit cost	Projected waste
L00103	8,916	Thu Feb 3	507	$2.80	0 vial · $0

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

Vendor	Part number	Vendor description	Sells by	Paid per vial	Invoices	90-day spend	Pairing
Harborline Pharmaceuticals	00143928410	PANTOPRAZOLE NA 40 MG/1 VIAL EA	EA of 1	$2.83	32	$9,795	NDC exact
Cobalt Rx Distributors	CRX-21656	PANTOP 40MG/1 SDV 1CT	EA of 1	$2.65	14	$3,937	reviewed 0.90