Methylprednisolone Sodium Succinate for Injection, 125 mg Vial
EndocrineEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days00143975425
Stock position
- On hand
- 442 vial16.1 days of supply
- On order
- 18 vialfirst arrives Tue Sep 15
- Forecast rate
- 27.4 vial/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 4 days
- 120 viallead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 56 vialempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 176 vialabove
- Stockout
- Thu Oct 1
- Recommended order
- noneby Mon Sep 28
- Inventory value
- $1,591at $3.60 per vial
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing19% weekly error, under-forecast25% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 19% on average (32% day by day), and it under-forecast by 17% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 25%.
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowvial/day
Projected on hand, vial: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Lots and expiry
Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.
| Lot | Quantity | Expires | Days | Unit cost | Projected waste |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L00107 | 232 | Sun Apr 11 | 209 | $3.60 | 0 vial · $0 |
| L00106 | 210 | Thu Jul 29 | 318 | $3.60 | 0 vial · $0 |
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per vial | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harborline Pharmaceuticals | 00143975425 | METHYLPREDNISOLONE NA SUCCINATE 125 MG/1 VIAL EA | EA of 1 | $3.34 | 32 | $5,983 | stand-in |
| Cobalt Rx Distributors | CRX-77506 | METHYL 125MG/1 SDV 1CT | EA of 1 | $3.70 | 13 | $2,632 | stand-in |
| Summit Clinical Products | SC-918614 | METHYL 125MG/1 SDV 25CT | PK of 25 | $3.53 | 7 | $882 | stand-in |
Cobalt Rx Distributors charges $3.6972 per vial for this item; Harborline Pharmaceuticals charges $3.3426. That is 11% more on about 2,888 vial a year, or $1,024 a year. No contract is on file for this Cobalt Rx Distributors line.