Methylprednisolone Sodium Succinate for Injection, 125 mg Vial
Stock position
- On hand
- 442 vial16.1 days of supply
- On order
- 18 vialfirst arrives Tue Sep 15
- Forecast rate
- 27.4 vial/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 4 days
- 120 viallead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 56 vialempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 176 vialabove
- Stockout
- Thu Oct 1
- Recommended order
- noneby Mon Sep 28
- Inventory value
- $1,591at $3.60 per vial
How the forecast was made
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 19% on average (32% day by day), and it under-forecast by 17% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 25%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 229 | 167 | -62 | 27% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 202 | 167 | -35 | 17% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 232 | 167 | -65 | 28% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 236 | 167 | -69 | 29% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 174 | 167 | -7 | 4% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 149 | 167 | +18 | 12% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 196 | 167 | -29 | 15% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 186 | 167 | -19 | 10% |
| All 8 weeks | 1,604 | 1,335 | -269 | 17% |
Weekly totals in vial. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Lots and expiry
Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.
| Lot | Quantity | Expires | Days | Unit cost | Projected waste |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L00107 | 232 | Sun Apr 11 | 209 | $3.60 | 0 vial · $0 |
| L00106 | 210 | Thu Jul 29 | 318 | $3.60 | 0 vial · $0 |
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per vial | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harborline Pharmaceuticals | 00143975425 | METHYLPREDNISOLONE NA SUCCINATE 125 MG/1 VIAL EA | EA of 1 | $3.34 | 32 | $5,983 | NDC exact |
| Cobalt Rx Distributors | CRX-77506 | METHYL 125MG/1 SDV 1CT | EA of 1 | $3.70 | 13 | $2,632 | reviewed 0.90 |
| Summit Clinical Products | SC-918614 | METHYL 125MG/1 SDV 25CT | PK of 25 | $3.53 | 7 | $882 | reviewed 0.90 |
Cobalt Rx Distributors charges $3.6972 per vial for this item; Harborline Pharmaceuticals charges $3.3426. That is 11% more on about 2,888 vial a year, or $1,024 a year. No contract is on file for this Cobalt Rx Distributors line.