Influenza Vaccine, 0.5 mL Prefilled Syringe
Stock position
- On hand
- 181 syringe7.1 days of supply
- On order
- 0 syringenothing open
- Forecast rate
- 25.3 syringe/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 4 days
- 89 syringelead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 56 syringeempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 146 syringeabove
- Stockout
- Wed Sep 23
- Recommended order
- noneby Sat Sep 19
- Inventory value
- $3,439at $19.00 per syringe
How the forecast was made
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 49% on average (59% day by day), and it under-forecast by 40% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 61%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 17 | 26 | +9 | 53% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 27 | 31 | +4 | 15% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 40 | 35 | -5 | 13% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 27 | 37 | +10 | 37% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 53 | 40 | -13 | 25% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 67 | 41 | -26 | 39% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 120 | 42 | -78 | 65% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 140 | 43 | -97 | 69% |
| All 8 weeks | 491 | 296 | -195 | 40% |
Weekly totals in syringe. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Lots and expiry
Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.
| Lot | Quantity | Expires | Days | Unit cost | Projected waste |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L00110 | 181 | Thu Dec 24 | 101 | $19.00 | 0 syringe · $0 |
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per syringe | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harborline Pharmaceuticals | 63552072210 | INFLUENZA A VIRUS A/VICTORIA/4897/2022 IVR-238 (H1N1) ANTIGEN (FORMALDEHYDE INACTIVATED), INFLUENZA A VIRUS A/CROATIA/10136/RV/2023 (H3N2) ANTIGEN (FORMALDEHYDE INACTIVATED),/INFLUENZA B VIRUS B/MICHIGAN/01/2021 ANTIGEN (FORMALDEHYDE INACTIVATED) 60; 60; 60 UG/.5ML; UG/.5ML; UG/.5ML SYR 10/PK | PK of 10 | $16.96 | 21 | $7,293 | NDC exact |
| Cobalt Rx Distributors | CRX-88975 | INFLUE 60;60;60UG/.5ML;UG/.5ML;UG/.5ML PFS 10CT | PK of 10 | $18.08 | 11 | $3,615 | reviewed 0.90 |