Influenza Vaccine, 0.5 mL Prefilled Syringe
VaccinesEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days63552072210
Stock position
- On hand
- 181 syringe7.1 days of supply
- On order
- 0 syringenothing open
- Forecast rate
- 25.3 syringe/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 4 days
- 89 syringelead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 56 syringeempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 146 syringeabove
- Stockout
- Wed Sep 23
- Recommended order
- noneby Sat Sep 19
- Inventory value
- $3,439at $19.00 per syringe
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing49% weekly error, under-forecast20% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 49% on average (59% day by day), and it under-forecast by 40% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 61%.
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowsyringe/day
Projected on hand, syringe: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Lots and expiry
Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.
| Lot | Quantity | Expires | Days | Unit cost | Projected waste |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L00110 | 181 | Thu Dec 24 | 101 | $19.00 | 0 syringe · $0 |
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per syringe | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harborline Pharmaceuticals | 63552072210 | INFLUENZA A VIRUS A/VICTORIA/4897/2022 IVR-238 (H1N1) ANTIGEN (FORMALDEHYDE INACTIVATED), INFLUENZA A VIRUS A/CROATIA/10136/RV/2023 (H3N2) ANTIGEN (FORMALDEHYDE INACTIVATED),/INFLUENZA B VIRUS B/MICHIGAN/01/2021 ANTIGEN (FORMALDEHYDE INACTIVATED) 60; 60; 60 UG/.5ML; UG/.5ML; UG/.5ML SYR 10/PK | PK of 10 | $16.96 | 21 | $7,293 | stand-in |
| Cobalt Rx Distributors | CRX-88975 | INFLUE 60;60;60UG/.5ML;UG/.5ML;UG/.5ML PFS 10CT | PK of 10 | $18.08 | 11 | $3,615 | stand-in |
Cobalt Rx Distributors charges $18.0763 per syringe for this item; Harborline Pharmaceuticals charges $16.9605. That is 7% more on about 811 syringe a year, or $905 a year.