Carboplatin Injection, 450 mg/45 mL Vial

OncologyEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days61703026205

Stock position

On hand
249 vial107 days of supply
On order
0 vialnothing open
Forecast rate
2.3 vial/daynext 30 days
Demand over 4 days
10 viallead time plus review period
Safety stock
7 vialempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point
17 vialabove
Stockout
not projected
Recommended order
none
Inventory value
$7,968at $32.00 per vial

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing20% weekly error, under-forecast0% better than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 20% on average (79% day by day), and it under-forecast by 6% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 20%.

Report card, week by week

Week ofUsedForecastErrorError %
Tue Jul 211816-211%
Tue Jul 282016-420%
Tue Aug 42116-524%
Tue Aug 111116+545%
Tue Aug 181516+17%
Tue Aug 251416+214%
Tue Sep 11516+17%
Tue Sep 82316-730%
All 8 weeks137128-96%

Weekly totals in vial. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.

Demand forecast

last 180 days and the next 30
049todayreport card windowThu Mar 19Wed Oct 14
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowvial/day

The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.

Projected on hand

0safety stock 7tomorrowWed Oct 14
Projected on hand, vial: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Lots and expiry

Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.

LotQuantityExpiresDaysUnit costProjected waste
L00112200Sun Nov 855$32.0073 vial · $2,325
L0011428Wed Jun 16275$32.000 vial · $0
L0011321Mon Jun 21280$32.000 vial · $0

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

VendorPart numberVendor descriptionSells byPaid per vialInvoices90-day spendPairing
Harborline Pharmaceuticals61703026205CARBOPLATIN 10 MG/ML VIAL EAEA of 1$28.3432$7,170NDC exact