Paclitaxel Injection, 300 mg/50 mL Vial

OncologyEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days63323076350

Stock position

On hand
16 vial23.7 days of supply
On order
0 vialnothing open
Forecast rate
0.7 vial/daynext 30 days
Demand over 4 days
3 viallead time plus review period
Safety stock
2 vialempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point
4 vialabove
Stockout
Thu Oct 8
Recommended order
noneby Mon Oct 5
Inventory value
$720at $45.00 per vial

How the forecast was made

Intermittent (TSB)off by 3.5 vial/week on average, over-forecast85% worse than naive

This item is used on fewer than 60% of days, so the forecast is 'how much when it's used' times 'how often it's used', each updated daily.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 3.5 vial a week, and it over-forecast by 50% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 27%. This item had no usage on 41% of days, so the intermittent method is used.

Report card, week by week

Week ofUsedForecastErrorError %
Tue Jul 21710+343%
Tue Jul 28510+5100%
Tue Aug 4710+343%
Tue Aug 11910+111%
Tue Aug 18610+467%
Tue Aug 25101000%
Tue Sep 1610+467%
Tue Sep 8510+5100%
All 8 weeks5583+2851%

Weekly totals in vial. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.

Demand forecast

last 180 days and the next 30
036todayreport card windowThu Mar 19Wed Oct 14
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowvial/day

The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.

Projected on hand

0safety stock 2runs out Fri Oct 9tomorrowWed Oct 14
Projected on hand, vial: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Lots and expiry

Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.

LotQuantityExpiresDaysUnit costProjected waste
L0011516Thu Sep 2353$45.000 vial · $0

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

VendorPart numberVendor descriptionSells byPaid per vialInvoices90-day spendPairing
Harborline Pharmaceuticals63323076350PACLITAXEL 6 MG/ML VIAL EAEA of 1$41.2230$6,224NDC exact