Tranexamic Acid Injection, 1 g/10 mL Vial

Critical CareVital, 99% service targetPrimary vendor Harborline Pharmaceuticals, lead 1 day, ordered every 3 days65219053410

Stock position

On hand
459 vial18.2 days of supply
On order
0 vialnothing open
Forecast rate
25.2 vial/daynext 30 days
Demand over 4 days
108 viallead time plus review period
Safety stock
48 vialempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point
156 vialabove
Stockout
Sat Oct 3
Recommended order
noneby Wed Sep 30
Inventory value
$1,469at $3.20 per vial

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing11% weekly error, under-forecast7% worse than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 11% on average (30% day by day), and it under-forecast by 6% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 10%.

Report card, week by week

Week ofUsedForecastErrorError %
Tue Jul 21183174-95%
Tue Jul 28149174+2517%
Tue Aug 4195174-2111%
Tue Aug 11159174+159%
Tue Aug 18179174-53%
Tue Aug 25231174-5725%
Tue Sep 1198174-2412%
Tue Sep 8183174-95%
All 8 weeks1,4771,393-846%

Weekly totals in vial. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.

Demand forecast

last 180 days and the next 30
03162todayreport card windowThu Mar 19Wed Oct 14
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowvial/day

The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.

Projected on hand

0safety stock 48runs out Sat Oct 3tomorrowThu Oct 8
Projected on hand, vial: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Lots and expiry

Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.

LotQuantityExpiresDaysUnit costProjected waste
L00119459Tue Jun 15274$3.200 vial · $0

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

VendorPart numberVendor descriptionSells byPaid per vialInvoices90-day spendPairing
Harborline Pharmaceuticals65219053410TRANEXAMIC ACID 10 MG/ML VIAL EAEA of 1$2.7532$5,149NDC exact
Cobalt Rx DistributorsCRX-43249TRANEX 10 SDV 10CTPK of 10$2.8913$2,141reviewed 0.90